Broken Ambitions: The Global Struggle to Halve Violent Deaths by 2030

Just over a quarter of the world’s countries and territories are currently on track to meet the targets of Sustainable Development Goal 16.1. As demonstrated in our 2021 update to the Global Violent Deaths database, there has been a six per cent rise in global deadly violence compared to 2020— a significant setback. Of the approximately 580,000 violent deaths, about 45 per cent were inflicted by firearms. If current trends continue or increase, the world will miss the target to halve all forms of violence and related death rates by 2030. Focusing on the G5 Sahel, the paper’s analysis underscores, however, that this region experiences notably higher levels of lethal violence compared to Northern Africa, and increasing conflict-related fatalities since 2016.

Broken Ambitions: The Global Struggle to Halve Violent Deaths by 2030—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—offers a comprehensive insight into global violent deaths, spanning from 2004 to 2021, and identifies potential scenarios for the period leading up to 2030. The paper also discusses the persistent lack of reliable data on lethal violence in Northern Africa and the G5 Sahel, with few countries providing comprehensive information.